The World Meteorological Organisation said on Friday that El Nino is set to intensify from August through October, a development that could push global temperatures above normal and trigger severe weather events.
Forecast details and expected impacts
The agency’s monthly global seasonal climate update noted that sea‑surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are projected to exceed 2.9 °C in key monitoring regions. Such anomalies typically accompany shifts in atmospheric patterns that can alter rainfall, temperature, and wind across continents.
According to the report, the strengthening of El Nino may lead to reduced monsoon rainfall in India and a likely positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a pattern in which the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer while the eastern side cools.
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These oceanic drivers combined can amplify regional climate stresses, including heightened wildfire danger around the Indian Ocean basin. The WMO warned that the cumulative effect of these patterns could strain water supplies, agricultural output, and emergency response systems in vulnerable areas.
International response and commentary
United Nations Secretary‑General António Guterres said, “El Nino is strengthening, adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas.” He described the phenomenon as “inside the house and turning up the heat, and this is only a warm‑up act.”
He also linked the intensifying climate pattern to ongoing fossil‑fuel use, stating that “more coal, oil and gas will lead to a more combustible future.” The call urged immediate action to protect populations and address the underlying causes of climate change.
Scientists emphasize that El Nino’s influence is not uniform; regional outcomes depend on local geography, existing climate trends, and adaptive capacity. For instance, some South‑East Asian countries may experience temporary relief from monsoon excesses, yet face heightened flood risk later in the season as atmospheric circulation adjusts.
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Preparedness is essential.
Policy makers in affected nations are urged to incorporate the forecast into disaster preparedness plans. Early warning systems, water management strategies, and fire‑risk mitigation efforts could benefit from the timing of the WMO’s update.
In the coming weeks, the organization plans to release more detailed model ensembles, which will refine the projected temperature and precipitation anomalies. These updates will help governments and NGOs fine‑tune their response measures as the El Nino episode unfolds.
